Study on Regional Growth Analysis of Food Grains in Uttar Pradesh

Abstract

Agriculture is the backbone of Indian economy, contributes about 14 per cent to national GOP and providing employment to 54.8 per cent of the total work force (2013-14). India occupies an important place in production of food grains, as it contributes 11.48 per cent of total food grains production in the world.Food grains are grown all over the world and account for almost 691 million hectares in area and 2241 million tonnes of production with yieldof 32.4 q/ha in 20 12-13.Jn India food grains account for almost 124.75 million hectares in area and 257.3 million tonnes of production with yieldof 20.78 q/ha in 2012-13. In U.P. food grains account for 20.13 million hectares, 50.98 million tonnes of production and yieldof24.98 q/ha (2012-13). The study is based on the primary and secondary d'lta pertaining to the period 1981-82 to 2011- 12. The compound growth rate was computed with the help of log linear function. The change in cropping pattern, variability and decomposition analysis were worked out to measure thevariation in area, production and yield of food grains during three phases viz Phase I, II and III using various economic tools. The projection of demand and supply of food grains up to 2022 was estimated to meet the future requirements and to frame future strategies. The primary data was collected from the 180 respondents with the help of well structured pre-tested schedule by personal interview method on various aspects such as production, marketing and post harvest management in order to identify the constraints responsible lor the growth of food grains in the state. In Uttar Pradesh the crops showing significant increase in area were Rice, Wheat, Moong bean, Urd bean and Pea, while significant decrease was recorded in Maize, Sorghum, Barley and Gram. The significant increase in production was in Rice, Pearl millet, Wheat, Moong bean, Urd bean and Pea while significant decrease was noticed in Sorghum, Barley and Gram. The significant increase in yield was noticed in Rice, Maize, Barley, Sorghum, Pearl millet, Wheat, Moong bean, Urd bean and Pea while no crop was seen with significant decrease in yield.The change in cropping pattern showed decrease in area under pulses which was brought under the cultivation of cereals, oilseeds, sugarcane and potato.The decomposition analysis showed decrease in pulse production due to negative area and positive yield effect and increase in production of cereals and food grains due to positive area and yield effect. The variability was found least in second phase and maximum during third phase. The projected population of the state was estimated during 2012 to 2022. The projected demand and supply for cereals was estimated over time, and result reveals that the supply of cereals in 2012 was 47.29 million tonnes increased to 58.29 million tonnes in 2022 and its demand from 29.69 million tonnes to 35.56 million tonnes by 2022. The supply demand gap shows the increased surplus of 17.60 to 22.73 million tonnes during the period of 2012 to 2022. Whereas the supply of pulses was declining from 2.01 (2012) to 1.63 million t~nnes (2022) against the increased demand from 5.93 to 7. 12 million tonnes which indicates deficit in supply of pulses increased from 4.02 to 5.49 million tonnes during 20 12-2022.The information on major constraints problems associated in food grains crop production viz cereals and pulses. Category wise main problems faced by respondents were non availability and high wage rate of labour, non availability of credit, lack of knowledge and poor adoption of high yielding varieties, interference of middle man, regulated market at improper places, lack of storage facilities, lack of knowledge in grading, standardization and quality control and lack of knowledge in market information while insufficient electric supply, poor availability of fertilizers, lack of knowledge in price discovery and poor communication facilities were as minor in trace constraints.